The FTSE 100 Cyclically Adjusted PE Ratio (FTSE 100 CAPE or PE10) – July 2012 Update

This is the Retirement Investing Today monthly update for the FTSE 100 Cyclically Adjusted PE (FTSE 100 CAPE).  Last month’s update can be found here.

Before we look at the CAPE let us first look at other key FTSE 100 metrics:
-    The FTSE 100 Price is currently 5,608 which is a large 6.6% above the 01 June 2012 Price of 5,260.
-    The FTSE 100 Dividend Yield is currently 3.78% having fallen back from 4.00% on the 01 June 2012.
-    The FTSE 100 Price to Earnings (P/E) Ratio is currently 10.08 which is up 7.7% since the 01 June 2012.
-    The Price and the P/E Ratio allows us to calculate the FTSE 100 As Reported Earnings (which are the last reported year’s earnings and are made up of the sum of the latest two half years earnings) as 556.

The S&P 500 Cyclically Adjusted PE (aka S&P 500 or Shiller PE10 or CAPE) – July 2012 Update

This is the Retirement Investing Today monthly update for the S&P500 Cyclically Adjusted PE (S&P 500 CAPE).  Last month’s update can be found here.

Before we look at the CAPE let us first look at other key S&P 500 metrics:
-    The S&P 500 Price is currently 1,341 which is 1.3% above last month’s Price of 1,328.
-    The S&P 500 Dividend Yield is currently 2.11%.
-    The S&P As Reported Earnings (using a combination of actual and estimated earnings) are currently $93.25.
-    The S&P 500 P/E Ratio is currently 14.4 which is up slightly from last month’s 14.3.

GDP per capita – BRIC vs PIGS vs the UK, USA and Germany

Warning: Before you start reading be aware that this is a bit of an exploratory post and so wanders a little.  It is certainly making me think and I hope it will have the same effect on you.

We regularly hear about the gross domestic product (or GDP) of the UK.  Actually, what the press mostly reports is the net GDP growth in percentage terms.  This is the GDP growth already inflation adjusted.  If this number is negative for at least 2 quarters (like the UK today) then you hear we are in recession and you are getting growth if your GDP is positive.  For the Average Joe on the street though I think this number may be a little meaningless and certainly isn’t as important as GDP per capita which just doesn’t seem to ever be discussed in the media or by government. 

The rationale behind this thought is that GDP does not take into account the change in a countries population nor the size of the population generating that GDP. 

Retirement Investing Today on Monevator

If you are a regular reader of Monevator you will have noticed that I have just had what I hope is the first of a regular series of quarterly Private Investor Market Roundups published.  If you are not a regular reader then it could be worth a look.  While it follows the usual Retirement Investing Today format of non emotional fact based analysis it introduces a number of new data sets which aren’t seen on this blog including a look at:
-    The stock markets of the top 10 countries by GDP including pricing (both nominal and real), P/E and Dividend Yield.  The countries are the US, China, Japan, Germany, France, Brazil, UK, Italy, Russia and Canada.
-    The nominal and real HaliWide Index which is the average of both the Halifax and Nationwide House Prices Indices.
-    The nominal and real performance of commodities including Gold, WTI Spot Crude, Soyabeans, Copper and Natural Gas.

Introducing the Greater Fool UK House Price Index

I now track 4 UK house price data sets.  These are:
-    The Rightmove House Price Index.  This index tracks asking prices of properties as they come onto the market.  Rightmove claims their dataset covers over 90% of the market so you would expect it to be pretty accurate in terms of seller’s first expectations of what they will achieve for their property.  The dataset is not seasonally adjusted.
-    The Halifax House Price Index.  This index is based on loan approvals agreed by Halifax Bank of Scotland.  The dataset that I use is the not seasonally adjusted, All Houses, All Buyers set.
-    The Nationwide House Price Index.  This index is based on loan approvals agreed by Nationwide Building Society.  I use the actual Average House Prices presented and so am using a not seasonally adjusted dataset.
-    The Land Registry House Price Index.  This contains the house prices for all transactions in England and Wales.  This includes both mortgages (which the Halifax and Nationwide would be included within) and non-mortgages (cash transactions).