The S&P 500 Cyclically Adjusted PE (aka S&P 500 or Shiller PE10 or CAPE) – September 2012 Update

Stock markets today provided big rises after Mario Draghi announced that he plans to buy up the debt of his favourite PIGS.  The German DAX rose 2.9%, France’s CAC 40 rose 3.1%, the UK’s FTSE 100 was up 2.1% and the Spanish IBEX was up a large 4.9%.  Positive market responses were not limited to Europe with the US S&P 500 also up 1.9% as I write this post. 

Given these market moves let’s look at the Retirement Investing Today monthly update for the S&P500 Cyclically Adjusted PE (S&P 500 CAPE).  Last month’s update can be found here.

Before we look at the CAPE let us first look at other key S&P 500 metrics:

• The S&P 500 Price is currently 1,430 which is 1.9% above last month’s Price of 1,403 and 21.8% above this time last year’s Price of 1,174.
• The S&P 500 Dividend Yield is currently 1.98%.
• The S&P As Reported Earnings (using a combination of actual and estimated earnings) are currently $88.59 for an Earnings Yield of 6.2%.
• The S&P 500 P/E Ratio is currently 16.1 which is up from last month’s 15.9.

The Retirement Investing Today High Yield Portfolio (HYP)

In its purest form a High Yield Portfolio (HYP) is a strategy designed to develop an Income Stream, which then provides an alternative to purchasing an Annuity with your Pension Fund or other investments.  The first priority is to amass 15-20 shares (minimise company risk), from different industries (minimise sector risk), from the FTSE 100 (minimise stability risk) that you believe will spin off dividends that rise at or above the rate of inflation.  If you achieve this then your purchasing power is maintained or increased.

If you achieve the first priority then you can also look to target the second priority which is to maximise the capital growth (what so many fund managers chase) of the portfolio.  This will ideally be an outperformance when compared to the UK market.  Although I think that if one can achieve the first priority there is every chance you will get the necessary amount of the second to meet your Income Stream objectives.

Gold Priced in British Pounds (GBP) – August 2012 Update

This is the regular gold priced in Pound Sterling update for August 2012.  The last update was in May 2012 and can be found here.

The chart below shows the Nominal Monthly Gold Price since 1979. 

Click to enlarge

Protecting Your Portfolio from Inflation – Index Linked Gilts (Linkers)

As a person who is not in debt and is saving hard for Retirement I am very conscious of the need to protect the purchasing power of my Retirement Investing Today Portfolio from the ravages of inflation.  Once I’ve done this I then need to work out how to get a real (after inflation) return.

If I am a debtor then inflation can help me as the real value of my debt becomes less as every day passes, however the opposite is true if you own assets.  Additionally, in a relatively low inflation environment, like we find ourselves today, it can be easy to ignore it.  In my opinion we just can’t afford to.  Even a small amount of annual inflation will wreak havoc on a non inflation protected portfolio over a relatively short period of time.

NS&I Index Linked Savings Certificates - Changes Announced

National Savings & Investments have announced changes to the way their Index Linked Savings Certificates operate.  These changes take effect on the 20 September 2012.  The link to the NS&I Announcement is here.

The change that hurts me the most is likely to be:
"penalty and loss of index-linking for cashing in early  
The penalty is equivalent to 90 days’ interest on the amount cashed in. And you’ll lose the index-linking on your whole Certificate for the investment year in which you cash in."
 
This is likely to hurt as should house prices resort to a sensible valuation I would likely liquidate all of my NS&I Index Linked Savings Certificates to maximise my deposit and hence minimise my mortgage rate.  Although at the rate we're going I won't have to worry about that for a long time.