The S&P 500 Cyclically Adjusted PE (aka S&P 500 or Shiller PE10 or CAPE) – October 2012 Update

This is the Retirement Investing Today monthly update for the S&P500 Cyclically Adjusted PE (S&P 500 CAPE).  Last month’s update can be found here.

As usual before we look at the CAPE let us first look at other key S&P 500 metrics:

• The S&P 500 Price is currently 1,435 which is 0.6% below last month’s Price of 1,443 and 18.8% above this time last year’s Price of 1,207.
• The S&P 500 Dividend Yield is currently 1.97%.
• The S&P As Reported Earnings (using a combination of actual and estimated earnings) are currently $88.87 for an Earnings Yield of 6.2%.
• The S&P 500 P/E Ratio is currently 16.2 which is down from last month’s 16.3.

Guest Posting on Monevator

Today I’m guest posting the 2nd Private Investor Market Roundup on Monevator.  The workload that goes into that post means there won’t be a mid week post on Retirement Investing Today.  The Roundup covers Quarter 3 2012 and in my usual non-emotional fact based analysis is looking at:

• The stock markets of the top 10 countries by GDP including pricing (both nominal and real), P/E and Dividend Yield.  The countries are the US, China, Japan, Germany, France, Brazil, UK, Italy, Russia and Canada.
• The nominal and real HaliWide Index which is the average of both the Halifax and Nationwide House Prices Indices.
• The nominal and real performance of commodities including Gold, WTI Spot Crude, Soyabeans, Copper and Natural Gas.

The Retirement Investing Today Low Charge Strategy and Portfolio

This blog is fast approaching its third anniversary.  In my first naive post I laid out in very brief terms “what” some of my investing strategy was about having developed it from the decision to go DIY in 2007.  This post also briefly described “why” I was taking the road I had chosen.  Soon after I laid out in detail the construction of what I called My Low Charge Investment Portfolio.  To this day I have continued to improve on the original portfolio methodology ever so slightly while holding true to the fundamentals of the strategy.  Since October 2009 that strategy and portfolio has seen my net worth increase by 73% in nominal terms.  Additionally, since October 2007 my net worth has increased by 306%.

Since that first post I have made 239 posts covering many topics.  If you’re interested some of the latest or most popular can be found in the sidebar.  Every post can also be found in the blog archive also found in the side bar.  While it’s all there as a fully accountable record I’m going to use today’s post to bring a number of my key fundamentals which cover strategy, portfolio and portfolio rebalancing into one single aide memoir.

Retirement Investing Today Strategy

The strategy is set around a decision to retire as early as possible.  It’s important to note that retirement for me does not mean a life of leisure.  It simply means that work becomes optional.  I may choose to stay in my current career, may start a new career which could involve voluntary work or it could be a life of leisure.  I don’t intend to make that decision today as anything can happen between now and retirement.  At the time of writing this post my portfolio models show my early retirement window appearing in around 3.5 years when I will be in my early 40’s.

A win win for all

I started Retirement Investing Today with a vision of both holding myself accountable and developing a small community of like minded individuals.  This has been achieved however in the last couple of months as readership has risen by some 60% from the previous peak it has brought with it a lot of new Comments from readers.  These are from people who both share experiences along similar lines to the road that I am travelling and importantly also bring alternative views for consideration.  These Comments are clearly bringing great benefits including:

• I get to read about different ideas and thoughts, which then encourages me to read and understand more, which then helps me with my own strategy.  If that strategy works then I can share it with you and even if it doesn’t I can share that also.
• You get to read about ideas and thoughts which hopefully encourage you to do more research on various topics resulting in new learning.
• By getting differing opinions we all avoid confirmation bias.
• One that I never even considered is that we are even starting to get some debate between readers within the comments which brings even more knowledge to the table.

The Dow has not reached 5 year highs (Severe Real S&P500 Bear Markets) – September 2012

I admit that over the past few weeks the US stock market has been a little bullish and has put on some good short term gains.  I however have not been excited by what I have been seeing.  The press however seem to be exactly the opposite.  We’ve seen headlines like Dow Closes at 5-year high, Market milestone: Stocks return to late 2007 level and even the US version of The Motley Fool telling us How the Dow reached a 5-year high.

It really is unfortunate that we live in an era where not even the press feel the need to report facts and can get away with such sloppy journalism.  Firstly, in nominal terms the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has not reached a 5 year high.  According to Google Finance within the last 5 years in nominal terms the best DJIA close we have seen has been 14,164 on the 09 October 2007.  In comparison in this recent bull market the best close we have seen has been 13,596 on the 20 September 2012.  I make that a gap of 4.0% so not what I would call a high.  The full 5 year story can be seen in my first chart which comes from Yahoo Finance.

 5 Year Nominal DJIA Chart (Click to enlarge)