This is the monthly update that compares the various UK House Price Indices. The previous update can be found
here. Since the last post I have engaged in some good debate with Retirement Investing Today readers which has then encouraged me to undertake some further reading around this topic. This has resulted in this regular topic seeing a number of direction changes which you will notice as you read on. The first of these is that from here on in this regular post will not be referred to as the Greater Fool Index. This title encouraged emotion and an inherent bias. This blog is not about either of those things and so I must drive the title back to one that is emotionless and mechanical. Not quite as exciting I know but hopefully of more use for making the right investing decisions moving forward.
It’s also important to note that this topic is also a work in progress and is not yet mature. Therefore as you’ve already done previously please feel free to comment on the analysis so that we can further improve the data for all readers.
Let us first look at the five datasets that will be used for ongoing analysis:
- The Rightmove House Price Index. This index simply tracks the average asking prices of properties as they come onto the market. This means it will be affected by price changes, if the mix of house type changes and if the mix of location changes for houses coming onto the market. It is not seasonally adjusted and covers properties from England and Wales. Asking prices in September were £234,858 which month on month is a fall of 0.6% and year on year is an increase of 0.7%.
- The Acadametrics House Price Index. This index is new for this blog and uses the Land Registry dataset. It mix adjusts this dataset to take a constant proportion of property types, from a constant mix of geographic areas. It is seasonally adjusted and covers properties from England and Wales. It covers buyers using both cash and mortgages. Buying prices in September were £225,374 which month on month is a small fall of 0.1% and year on year is an increase of 2.2%.
- The Halifax House Price Index. This index is based on buying prices of houses where loan approvals are agreed by Halifax Bank of Scotland. It uses hedonic regression to remove type and mix variations thereby measuring the price of a standardised house. I use the non seasonally adjusted dataset and it covers the complete United Kingdom. Sales prices in September were £160,437 which month on month is a rise of 0.2% and year on year is a fall of 1.2%.
- The Nationwide House Price Index. This index is very similar to that of the Halifax except it is based on buying prices of houses where loan approvals are agreed by Nationwide Building Society. Sales prices in July were £163,964 which month on month is a fall of 0.5% and year on year is a fall of 1.4%.
- The Land Registry House Price Index. This index uses repeat sales regression on houses which have been sold more than once to calculate an increase or decrease. This is then combined with a mean price which was taken in April 2000 to calculate the index. It is seasonally adjusted and covers properties from England and Wales. It covers buyers using both cash and mortgages. Sales prices in August were £163,376 which month on month shows no movement and year on year is an increase of 0.7%.