A Retirement Investing Today Review 6 Months into 2013

This is the regular quarterly feature that demonstrates the progress a person actively living the tools and techniques mentioned on this site can make towards early financial independence.  It also forces me to hold true to those tools and techniques because if I can’t live by them then this site becomes hypocritical like so many other sites out there and I become nothing more than a hypocrite like so many others with vested interests.    

My own personal situation follows everything I talk about on this site to the letter.  The site is all about Save Hard, Invest Wisely, Retire Early so as with the 2012 Review let’s continue to use those 6 words as a theme.

SAVE HARD

I am now into a fifth year of aiming to save 60% of my earnings, which I define as my gross (ie before tax) earnings plus any employee pension contributions.  This remains a very tough target in the current age where we have increased taxes and prices due to unrelenting inflation.  I feel fortunate to have been given some respite here earlier in the year with a 3.5% salary increase after receiving nothing in the previous year.

To maintain my Save Hard focus I continue to looking for ways to both Earn More as well as Spend Less which certainly requires frugal living and little to no consumerism.  This continues to be a very positive experience however when you live in a city, London, where it appears as though everyone thinks the world is going to end tomorrow it can become difficult to stay on the path I have chosen.

By tracking my net worth on a weekly basis, which also gives me a % towards early retirement figure, plus before making any purchase taking some time out to ask myself if I really need what I am about to purchase which includes considering will it help improve my health or increase happiness I typically don’t stray for very long.  Particularly as I carry the knowledge that by deferring that spend I get one step closer to early retirement which will mean a big reduction in stress plus the option to only work when I want and then only because I enjoy it.

Last quarter I managed a savings rate of 67% of earnings however I also advised that a large portion of that was caused by a HMRC error.  They are now in the process of recovering the “interest free loan” they provided me with which has caused a fall back in savings rate to 64% for the first half of 2013.  These savings have gone into both my own investments plus a portion has been provided to my better half to help keep her financial independence goal on track and in sync with my own.  The payback to HMRC still has some way to run so I’ll need to stay focused if I’m going to keep that savings rate above 60% in 2013.

So where did the money go:

• 22% was invested into Pension Wrappers
• 36% was invested into ISA’s and non tax efficient locations 
• 6% was used by my better half

Saving hard half quarter end score: Pass but I need to stay focused with the current increased tax pressure on my shoulders.

Is it More Important to Earn More or Spend Less

If we are ever to build wealth for financial independence then we must first get to the point where we are spending less than we earn.  The remainder after spending are the savings which can then be invested wisely for early retirement (or whatever cause you are looking to build wealth for).  To maximise our savings (hence accrue the amount of wealth we require in the shortest possible time for a set investment risk) we should first take all the earning more and spending less opportunities available to us that take little to no extra time.  On the earning more side this could include asking for a salary increase if you employer is paying you less than the market rate and on the savings side it could be living in a home that is well below what you can afford, not grabbing that Starbucks on the way to work, having the lowest price grocery bill or even taking on a cheaper mobile phone plan even if it means you don’t get the latest smart phone to name but four.

Once you've done that you’re now at the point where to increase your savings rate you need to start expending more time and energy.  On the earnings side this could be working paid overtime, working free overtime if you think it will give opportunity for higher earnings later, looking for a new job that will better recognise your current skills and hence pay you more, undertaking training which will arm you with more skills to enable you to earn more or even developing a side hustle job to bring in a little extra cash.  On the spending reduction side it might include learning how to and then making your own cleaning products, growing some of your own fruit & vegetables or even mending your own clothes.

To achieve a savings rate of 60% of gross earnings I know that personally I have taken all the earn more and spend less no extra time opportunities that I can think of plus I am expending huge amounts of time and energy on earning more.  I am also devoting some extra time to spending less but this area is certainly not maximised as both my living conditions (a small London based rented flat) plus earning more efforts filling the week restrict this somewhat.  The question is does this philosophy generate maximum savings or should more time be spent on spending less?  This site is all about fact based analysis and so let’s run some simple numbers to find out.

There is No Longer a UK Housing Market for the Average Joe

The latest Land Registry monthly release tells us that in March 2013 there were 52,090 house sales in England and Wales.  In March 2012 the volume was 61,334 a difference of -15% in 12 months.  Volumes are also only 38% of the peak volume seen in May 2002 and 64% of the long run average of this dataset.  Meanwhile house prices seem to be doing not much more than the dance of a damped sine wave since 2007.  So even with plenty of market manipulation including the Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS) and Quantitative Easing (QE), which have driven mortgage rates to record lows, this is the best that the Bank of England and UK Government can muster in terms of a market.  This is all shown in my first chart today.

Click to enlarge

This all looks pretty bad but it wasn’t until I read the Land Registry May 2013 HPI Statistical Report that I realised for normal people there no longer really even seems to be a market.  The table below shows the sales volumes by price range.  Look at the volumes for houses priced between £100,001 and £250,000.  They’re down between 17% and 27%.  In stark contrast volumes for properties greater than £1,000,000 are up between 15% and 24%.

Click to enlarge 

Jump to London and its insane house prices and the market is even more finished for all the Average Joe’s out there.  Between £100,001 and £250,000 volumes are down between 38% and 46%.  In comparison if you’re looking to spend over £1,000,000 then you have some competition with other would be “wealthy” future house owners with volumes up between 20% and 29%.

The FTSE 100 Cyclically Adjusted Price Earnings Ratio (FTSE 100 CAPE) Update - June 2013

Ever since Bernanke opened his mouth about potentially easing back (not stopping) on the amount of Quantitative Easing he is undertaking each month we've seen the price of many asset classes fall.  This has included the FTSE100.  Am I worried about it?  Well as a person who is investing large amounts every month into the markets the answer is no.  I hear you ask why.  Well if I use the FTSE100 as an example I’ll show today that both company earnings and dividends  are rising.  Therefore a falling price combined with rising earnings and dividends simply means a higher dividend yield and earnings yield.  That means that I'm simply buying the market at better value.

Let’s now run the numbers.  The last time we looked at this dataset was on the 30 April 2013.

FTSE 100 Price

In early morning trade today the FTSE 100 was priced at 6,160.  That is a fall of 4.5% when compared with the 01 May 2013 Price of 6,451.  It’s still 17.1% above the 01 June 2012 Price of 5,260.  How this pricing compares with history can be seen in the chart below.

Click to enlarge

This is a similar chart to that which you will see in many places within the mainstream media.  Let’s now remove the sensationalism by:

• Correcting the chart for the devaluation of the £ through inflation.  For this dataset I use the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to devalue the £.
• Plotting the Pricing on a logarithmic scale as opposed to a linear one.  By using this scale percentage changes in price appear the same.  

Looking at the chart this way reveals the FTSE 100 in a very different light.  That light shows that the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in today’s £’s has only been 1.7%.  Correct it by the Retail Prices Index (RPI) and that falls to 1.0%.

Click to enlarge

FTSE 100 Earnings

As Reported Nominal Annual Earnings are currently 504, up from 481 on the 01 May 2013.  They are down 10.4% on last year and down 19.8% on October 2011’s peak of 628.  Or course this looks better than it really is as inflation flatters the result.  I therefore plot a chart below, again on a logarithmic axis, showing Real (inflation adjusted) Earnings performance over the long term.

A Sobering Income Drawdown Demonstration

If when you retire you:

• aren't fortunate enough to have a defined benefit pension from your employer coming at some point;
• decide against buying an annuity;
• don’t have any non-investment income streams such as part time work;

then after allowing for whatever State Pension is due your way, you’ll be living off whatever wealth you have accrued during your working life (plus whatever return you can achieve on that wealth).

We've previously looked at how you might calculate how much wealth you need to build before retirement.  Today I'm going to run a sobering simulation that demonstrates just how important it is firstly give yourself some contingency in those retirement calculations but then secondly monitor your progress once in retirement, adjusting where necessary (just as you did during the accrual stage), to prevent yourself from running out of investments.

Before we run the simulation let’s define the assumptions:

• Our retiree decides to pull the retirement trigger on the 31 December 2006. On that date the FTSE100 was 6,220, it peaked the following year and today it sits at 6,308.  That’s a nominal rise of only 1.4% in around six and half years.  You've probably guessed our retiree retired just before the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) took hold. 
• Our retiree removes his income for the following year on the 31 December of each previous year.  That income is placed in a safe place where a derisory amount of interest is earned.
• All calculations are conducted in real (inflation adjusted) terms meaning that a £ in 2006 is equal to a £ today.  The inflation measure used to correct for sterling devaluation is the Retail Prices Index (RPI).
• 6 Simple UK Equity / UK Bond Portfolio’s are simulated for our retiree.  The mix includes our retiree being conservative (25% UK Equities : 75% UK Bonds),  standard (50% UK Equities : 50% UK Bonds) and aggressive (75% UK Equities : 25% UK Bonds) when it comes to portfolio risk.  Two different bond types will also be used in the simulation.
• The UK Equities portion is always the FTSE 100 where the iShares FTSE 100 ETF (ISF) is used as the proxy.  
• For the bonds portion a simulation is run against UK Gilts (FTSE Actuaries Government Securities UK Gilts All Stock Index) where the iShares FTSE UK All Stocks Gilt ETF (IGLT) is used as the proxy.  We also run a simulation with the bond type I prefer in my own portfolio, UK Index Linked Gilts (Barclays UK Government Inflation-Linked Bond Index), where the iShares Barclays £ Index-Linked Gilts ETF (INXG) is used as the proxy.
• Our retiree rebalances to the target asset allocation on the 31 December of each year to manage risk.
• Only fund expenses are included.  Trading commissions, wrapper fees, buy/sell spreads or taxes are not.
• The wealth accrued at retirement (the 31 December 2006) is £100,000.  To simulate a larger or smaller amount of wealth just multiple by a constant. For example if you want our retiree to have £600,000 just multiply all the subsequent pound values by 6.