Toto, I’ve a feeling we’re not in Kansas anymore and 2020 in review

Usually at this time of year I publish a year in review which covers a little of the qualitative and a lot of the quantitative.  Given the year we’ve just had, along with quantitative needs now being significantly lessened given the stage of my FIRE life I’m currently in, I feel it’s worthy to flip that weighting as it really has been a year to both remember and to forget.  Additionally and hopefully once you see the qualitative you’ll understand why it’s been a long time between blog drinks.

So let’s get the quantitative stuff out of the way.  In my purist FIRE plan I was aiming to spend the lesser of:

• up to 2.5% of initial FIRE wealth plus investment expenses of around 0.2% uprated for inflation annually.  For 2020 that gave me a drawdown target of around £26,084 plus investment expenses.
• up to 85% of my annual dividends.  Dividends were a car crash this year. Once the laggards make their final payments I expect them to be down around 29% year on year.  For 2020 that gave me a drawdown target of around £19,848

Click to enlarge, RIT Annual Dividends

In comparison, during year 2 of FIRE, I withdraw from my wealth a total £19,022.  I met my FIRE goals but boy did it occur unconventionally.  So let’s switch to the story to explain that which is hopefully the interesting bit.

Obfuscation

I’m not sure if it’s the COVID-19 lockdown affecting me, or whether this is really a thing, but over the past month or so I’ve started to really notice companies stretching their take on integrity.  Maybe I was just in a bubble before but for me if you don’t have integrity I don’t want to be anywhere near you.  Let’s look at a few examples that I’ve personally come across.

BT this week published their 4th quarter and year end results.  Within that were these pearls of wisdom - "In order to deal with the potential consequences of Covid-19, allow us to invest in FTTP and 5G, and to fund the major 5-year modernisation programme, we have also taken the difficult decision to suspend the dividend until 2022 and re-base thereafter.”

Now I know that lots of businesses are currently doing it tough but I just cannot see how BT can be worse off because of COVID-19 given we are currently in a world where the majority of communication can only be done via telephone or electronic data transfer.  My view, without having any knowledge of BT, is that the COVID-19 situation is just obfuscation from the fact that the board can’t figure out how to set pricing and manage their cost base to enable investment to stay competitive and give some cash back to the owners of the business.

I also take issue with term “re-base”.  It’s cut or reduce.  I’ve never heard anybody say I’m going to “re-base” my grocery bill.

Fortunately, other than in my FTSE100 tracker, I don’t own BT.

RateSetter is another.  When I first started investing with them they had products called 3 Year, 1 Year and Monthly.  Since then they’ve moved away from that model and amongst a few new products introduced a product called “Access”.

Given the current climate it’s no secret that P2P lenders are doing it tough.  I can accept that it’s so tough that lenders like me might start taking capital losses or even lose the majority of it.  After all with peer-to-peer it’s always stated that “capital is at risk”.

Rebalancing vs taxes vs expenses vs life

With us now being only a single working week away from the new UK financial year and the investment world still feeling the impacts of the COVID-19 situation I thought it might be worthwhile sharing a little about how my portfolio and life is changing given where we currently find ourselves.

Let's start with what my investing strategy, something I first shared way back in 2009 but wasn’t really finalised until 2012, tells me to do.  For this post there are three important pillars:

• If any of my assets, diversified by country and by asset class, gets more than 25% away from the plan then I will either sell or buy as appropriate to move that asset class back to plan
• Minimise taxes meaning I keep more of my wealth for myself
• Minimise investment expenses also meaning I keep more of my wealth for myself

It’s also worth sharing some other information that helped inform my recent decisions:

• My gold had become 25% overweight
• My bonds while not 25% overweight were well overweight
• The UK 2019/20 capital gains tax annual exempt amount is £12,000.  It’s also worth adding that I believe if you sell assets worth more than £48,000 or have gains before taking off losses of £12,000 then you will also have to complete the tax return capital gains summary pages.  Not a financial negative but a time waste worth avoiding if it sensibly can be.
• Once this COVID-19 problem passes it’s looking more and more likely that we’ll be Asian bound for the next part of our FIRE journey.  We’ve still not finalised plans, as we’ve learnt we have no need to rush these types of decisions, but we’re confident enough to start (continue?) shifting our asset allocation over the coming 6 to 12 months.  That involves moving our equity investment bias (may be controversial for some but it’s always been part of my strategy so I’m not changing it) from the UK (HYP, VUKE, VMID) to Asia mainly in the form of the Vanguard FTSE Developed Asia Pacific ex Japan UCITS ETF (VAPX).
• VAPX only went ex dividend/distribution on Thursday with all my Vanguard equity dividends/distributions being paid on the 08 April 2020.
• Within my portfolio I have pensions (all SIPP’s), an ISA, NS&I Index Linked Savings Certificates (ILSCs) and plenty of non-tax efficient investments. 

Lenses

A chart of the monthly FTSE 100 price looks something like this:

Click to enlarge, Monthly FTSE 100 Price

This is the chart that you’ll see on all the mainstream media channels and it shows that the FTSE 100 still has about 32% to fall if it’s going to match the worst of the global financial crisis (GFC).  This sounds like a long way until one thinks about a big failing with this type of chart.  It’s unit of measurement…  The FTSE 100 is priced in £’s and they’re constantly being devalued via inflation.  So, let’s take out a different lens and try and look at the chart in real, inflation adjusted, terms.

Firstly, let’s correct for the consumer price index (CPI):

Click to enlarge, Real (CPI) Monthly FTSE 100 Price

That shows that instead of falls of 32% being needed it’s actually closer to falls of 16% for parity with the worst of the GFC.

Perspective

If you were a trader on the financial markets, I’d think that you’ve probably had quite an interesting week.  After all the S&P500 is down 11.5% (an official correction without even going back into the declines of the previous week), our FTSE100 is down 11.1%, the Nikkei225 is down a more modest 9.6% while the ASX200 is down 9.8%.

Word on the street is that this has been caused by fear of what coronavirus, or to use its catchier name, COVID-19, could do to global financial performance, including the more than 1,000 companies contained within just those four faceless indices I’ve mentioned.  Years ago I proved I was a useless trader so with that in mind I’d also still suggest that some of the moves are caused by the coronavirus being a good excuse to have a market pullback given markets like the S&P500’s current hefty valuation.

Down market moves like this then give those of us who are paid to sell drama a great opportunity to come up with headlines like “Coronavirus meltdown: Airlines plunge as global stock markets suffer their worst week since the 2008 financial crisis” (I won’t link to the source of that one but if you’re interested Google is your friend) through to something a little more data driven like “Shares drop in worst week since financial crisis”

If you didn’t take personal finance seriously, articles like those might even be enough to cause you to panic (whether or not the first $100 billion trading day for the ETF SPY (an S&P500 tracker) was panic is of course debatable) with your own wealth or even not get started on the road to financial independence in the first place.