2018 Quarter 3 Review, Readying for FIRE

Latchi, Cyprus at dusk

With my work notice period now nearing completion I’m actually a little surprised at the calm in the RIT household.  Hopefully this means we believe we are reasonably well prepared and probably more importantly means that we still believe we are doing the right thing.

At work we’re just completing 2019 plans and I’m not excited by any of it which is a new feeling for me.  I’ve put this down to a couple of things.  One of the main objectives is something I’ve personally done on a larger scale twice previously so I would expect few challenges if I was leading the activity.  This might be a contributor but I suspect the real reason is that FIRE now just feels 100% like the right next step combined with feeling well prepared for what we’re walking into.  Not even Mr Market taking £72,000 from my wealth since its peak in mid-August and £58,000 in the last 3 weeks has made my think twice.  I guess that means I’m ready.

Our readiness for our Med move is also calmly progressing.  We have the removal company booked with them moving us in 2 stages for only an additional 5% cost.  This was our suggestion and I was surprised at the small delta cost meaning it was the lowest total move cost option we came up with.  The rationale is that the shipping time to Cyprus is about 4 weeks so what we’ll do is split our stuff in half meaning we’ll be able to stay in our current UK rental flat right up until the night before our flight and then in Cyprus we’ll only book a short term rental for 2 weeks which should be time enough to find a long term rental.

On the financial side we’ve also taken some precautions like opening additional current accounts with new banks as that will be almost impossible to do once we’re non-resident and banks have form of closing non-resident accounts when they decide it’s best for them.  For example Barclays has form with residents of Cyprus being specifically targeted for closures.  We’ve also opened up new UK savings accounts for a fresh 12 months bonus interest by which time we should hopefully be putting those cash funds to work on a home purchase.  The best I came up with here was the new Goldman Sachs Marcus account which is giving me 1.5% annualised.

We’re also starting to think about what we’re going to need to purchase in Cyprus for our new lives and making sure we can get access to that cash quickly.  We’ve therefore opened up a competitive international currency transfer account as well.  One of the things I’ve decided I’ll ‘need’ very early on is a new road bike.  Requirements are a relatively good price vs weight bang for buck, suitable for plenty of miles in the saddle, suitable for hill/mountain ascending/descending plus the flats and good enough that when I get dropped on club rides it’s because I’m a ‘fat unfit b*stard’ not because I’m riding something that weights 30kg.  The best I’ve come up with is this:

Click to enlarge, Canyon Endurace CF SL Disc 7.0

Do any readers have any better road bike ideas?

With the move now just weeks away this makes this quarterly update the last that shows how I’ve accumulated my wealth.  The next update will switch to how I’m managing drawdown.  Accumulated wealth is quite a loose term in this case given since the start of the year my wealth has actually reduced by £14,000 or -1.1%.  Let’s look at the details.

The Wealthsimple Experiment

It’s no secret that Personal Finance is a hobby of mine (498 blog posts help reinforce that) and within that hobby I’ve done a reasonable job of DIY investing myself to FIRE using the knowledge I’ve gained to focus on a few mechanical principles.  I would suggest that this has also been helped by having a “head vs heart” approach to life, a reasonable grasp of maths, gaining a sense of achievement by reading personal finance books/blogs and an enjoyment of spreadsheets.

Mrs RIT on the other hand is the very opposite of me which makes our non-financial relationship great as we balance each other well.  She would never take on personal finance as a hobby, is more “heart vs head”, is more arts than maths and most definitely doesn’t enjoy spreadsheets.  She does however very much see the benefits of wealth creation and FIRE having been a willing participant in the journey to FIRE.

With this in mind, over a reasonable period now, I’ve been teaching Mrs RIT DIY investing.  The reason I’m not just doing this 100% for her is that someday there is of course a risk that I won’t be able to for a number of reasons.  We therefore want her to be able to stand on her own investment feet.  We are making progress but I’m still answering plenty of questions.  Then a couple of weeks ago it went a little pear shaped.  Mrs RIT was about to buy an investment with some new money.  The night before we agreed what the ETF purchase should be to move her current asset allocation closer to plan and she was to then buy the ETF the next morning.  That afternoon I asked how the purchase went and would she like me to answer any questions.  The response was “Oh I didn’t buy the one we agreed because when I logged on to buy I saw that it had been going down so I bought this other one which has been going up”.  This started me thinking about whether DIY investing is for her and what other options we might have as a risk mitigation to me being unable to help with her (and maybe inherited from me) investments in the future.

One-way flights booked to Aphrodite’s birthplace

Even if you’re not into your Greek mythology then you’ve probably heard of Aphrodite, the Ancient Greek Goddess of love and beauty.  The legend goes that she was born from the sea foam here:

Click to enlarge, Happy snap of Petra tou Romiou

Aphrodite apparently rose from the waves and was escorted on a shell to this beach.  That beach and those rock formations are in the Paphos district of Cyprus – our soon to be new home.  In the end our choice of new homes came down to Spain vs Cyprus and specifically the Costa del Sol vs Paphos.  Now not for a second am I saying that we couldn’t have found somewhere more suitable in Spain or Cyprus or elsewhere for that matter but what I am saying is that eventually it gets to the point where you have to make a decision with the data you have and strap yourself in for the ride.  We did that this week as we made our first irreversible commitment – we’ve booked our one-way flights.

So how did we arrive at Paphos (Pafos), Cyprus?  The process was:

• We firstly scoured the internet, which included numerous forums, to shortlist possible locations.  
• With that information we tried to build a ‘head’ matrix where we scored many topics including ease of visiting friends/family, ease of travel, cost of living, financials including taxes, economic stability, language, demographics, desired lifestyle compatibility, crime, security, noise, weather and healthcare (short term and long term) to name a few.
• If that showed promise we then visited the location and if we liked it we tried to visit again in the opposite season.  During our visit we then tuned up the ‘head matrix’ for comparison against other locations.  For a location to qualify we had to have visited it at least once for more than a holiday.

The secondary benefits of minimalism

During the week I was asked by a family member how much we’re paying for our contents insurance annually.  I replied that we don’t have contents insurance to which I was asked but what would you do if you were robbed or the house burnt down.  I replied with as you know we don’t have much stuff so I’d just buy replacements.  I was looked at like I had two heads and the topic of conversation was moved on.

Afterwards though I thought about this a little more.  As a family we don’t live out of suitcases but at the same time of all the people I know I’d say we have the least amount of possessions.  This hasn’t really been planned but is more the output of our intentional focus on quality of life which has led us more to a life based on security (one of the drivers behind FIRE), experiences and relationships.  So in our case the primary benefit of not coveting stuff is that it has accelerated our quality of life journey.

The insurance question did however make me think of a number of secondary benefits.  Firstly, to the insurance question itself.  As a collective group those that take out insurance have to lose out financially when compared to those that don’t.  This is because insurance companies need to pay wages, other operating costs and satisfy shareholders meaning what is paid out in claims must be less than what is taken in via premiums.  As an individual though you could win or lose.  Don’t take out home insurance for 40 years and never make a claim and you’re ahead.  Have your home burn down in year 2 under the same scenario and you’re definitely a loser which might include ending up under a railway arch in a worst case scenario.

Sobering retirement income drawdown demonstrations – 11.5 years in

As I write this post the S&P500 cyclically adjusted price earnings ratio sits at 32.0 against a long run average of 16.9, Donald Trump is starting trade wars, the US market has been in a bull cycle for well over 9 years and closer to home we have a Brexit shambles playing out in slow motion that might just ruin the economy for a long time.  Then on a personal front I’m just about to ride off into the FIRE sunset.

S&P500 cyclically adjusted price earnings ratio, click to enlarge

Against this backdrop it feels right to reinvigorate and update the UK retirement income drawdown series, which I last posted about 2 years ago, to see how things are playing out.  I hope it’s not relevant to my situation but you just never know.

Unless you’re one of the lucky ones sitting on a defined benefit pension (although it’s likely you’ll also need some other income source in the early years if you’re going to FIRE) or you intend to buy an annuity (again, not likely for the early years of FIRE) or you’re just planning on living off the State Pension then income drawdown in FIRE (or even just plain old retirement) is relevant.

This update of the drawdown demonstrations now has our retiree some 11.5 years in to retirement.  We are now just over one third of the way through the period that the 4% rule is based upon and this simulation assumes retirement was taken on the 31 December 2006.  If this date sounds convenient then you’re right.  The date was deliberately chosen as it is the year prior to the commencement of the global financial crisis and so hopefully represents a modern worst case.  Someday it may even go down in history as one of the time periods which saw a poor sequence of returns however of course that will only become clear when we are firmly looking in the rear view mirror many years hence.

2018 Half 1 Review, The penultimate accumulation post

A little over ten and a half years ago I started to accumulate wealth with a vague notion of work becoming optional in a relatively short time.  At the time I was calling this Early Retirement.  It was a time when the more famous sites like Mr Money Mustache or Early Retirement Extreme didn’t even exist.  It was also a time when terms like FIRE also didn’t exist.  It was a time of self discovery vs being able to learn from those that had walked the path.

With my resignation now in and FIRE now just over the horizon this post series about accumulating wealth is fast drawing to a close.  This is the penultimate one.  The second last post where I ramble on about how I’m try to accrue wealth quickly.  It will soon become all about managing drawdown to protect my wealth.  I’m looking forward to it.

To stay on the subject of accumulation, in the first half of 2018 wealth growth was a modest 2.8% or £36,000.  If I was at the start of my journey the word modest would not be one I would be using to describe wealth growth of £36,000 in 6 months but as someone looking back at a journey that has managed annualised wealth growth of 21.4% it is modest.  Let’s look at the details.

SAVE HARD

I unapologetically continue to define Saving Hard differently than most personal finance bloggers.  For me it’s Gross Earnings (ie before taxes, a crucial difference) plus Employer Pension Contributions minus Spending minus Taxes.  Earn more and one is winning.  Spend less or pay less taxes and you’re also winning.  Savings Rate is then Saving Hard divided by Gross Earnings plus Employer Pension Contributions.  To make it a little more conservative Taxes include any taxes on investments but Earnings include no investment returns.  This encourages me to continually look for the most tax efficient investment methods.  I finished the quarter with an uninspiring Savings Rate of 42.3% against a plan of 55.0%.

Click to enlarge, RIT Savings Rate

Resignation in

Recently I’ve been having doubts about taking early retirement.  What I’ve found particularly interesting is that since becoming financially independent back in July 2016 I just haven’t had the same level of hunger for it.  In the past few weeks I’ve been really trying to figure out why.  I definitely knew there was an element of institutionalisation in there but it was more than that.  There was also fear and plenty of it.

Fear of leaving a career that has plenty of negatives but also plenty of positives.  Fear of the unknown.  Fear of losing purpose.  Fear we’re making a mistake.  Fear of not having enough.  Fear of our move to the Mediterranean being a mistake and us returning with our tail between our legs.  Fear of...

Another pension partial transfer and the elephant in the room

By now it’s no secret that I dislike investment expenses and continually work to minimise them in the most cost effective manner.  I’ve also written previously about how my work defined contribution (DC) pension scheme gives no special benefits but does extract at least 0.6% in annual expenses.  I’ve also previously written about how I take advantage of the pension partial transfer rules by transferring to either of my SIPP providers when they have some sort of special offer and I have a sensible amount of funds in my work DC pension.

Well Hargreaves Lansdown currently have a cash back offer running:

Click to enlarge, Cash back of between £20 and £500 available

I also had a little over £10,000 in my work DC pension so again the used Hargreaves Lansdown electronic transfer service.  It was another good experience with the online form being completed during last week’s bank holiday, Hargreaves Lansdown acknowledging my instructions on the Tuesday and the transfer being complete by the Friday.  The end result:

• Partial transfer completed in 4 days;
• Expenses reduced from 0.6% to between 0.07% and 0.19%.  I bought Vanguard ETF’s and that is their annual expenses.  On the Hargreaves Lansdown side, other than purchase costs, there are no extra expenses because I only buy shares/ETF’s in this SIPP and already have more than £44,444 which means my expenses are capped at £200;
• £20 will soon appear in my SIPP. 

Too old or a fool and his money are soon parted

At age 45 I’m beginning to think I might just be falling behind all the cool kids.  Let’s use grocery shopping as an example.  Throughout the week as we use up (or get within about a week of using up) items we write that item down on what is usually the back of a piece of junk mail.  As the week progresses that starts to form into a grocery shopping list.  Then before we go on our weekly grocery shop we write a weekly meal plan which may require some additions or subtractions to that list.  Once in the supermarket we know which products we normally buy as we’ve already done the lowest price grocery shop but of course we also quickly scan the shelves to see if there is anything on special that week or whether any prices have changed that might alter our buying habits.  This results in minimal waste and hopefully pretty close to the lowest priced weekly shop for our tastes.

We’ve done this for many years so imagine my surprise when I discover something called a Dash Button which can do my shopping for me.  I don’t have one but as I understand it for £4.99 you get a Wi-Fi connected button (with many varieties available covering Household & Office, Food & Beverages, Health & Personal Care, Beauty, etc), which via your phone you pair with a product that you select from a particular brand tied to the Dash Button.  You then stick the button near to the place of use in your home.  So if for example you’re buying soap you might stick it near to your bathroom soap dispenser.  Then when you’re getting low or have run out just push the dash button and voila a new item magically turns up in your letter box the next day.