Buying Gold

As I postulated here I made the decision on Wednesday to buy more gold. As with the last time I bought gold, the buy was not big at 0.6% of my total retirement investing assets. The trade was made by moving cash to gold rather than with new money. At the close on Friday gold had reached £733.01 (Note: I have a gold priced in GBP widget on the right hand side bar widget of this blog as I follow it closely) which means that even allowing for buy/sell spreads and trading costs I am up on this buy decision by 2.5%.

A home for cash

UK Retail Prices Inflation (RPI) is currently running at 3.7%. This means that if you are a UK basic rate taxpayer that to just stand still you need to be earning interest of 4.63%. It’s even worse for higher rate taxpayers, you need to be earning 6.17%.

So what’s available out there? A quick look at MoneySavingExpert shows that the best ‘clean’ account, which is one that plays no tricks like introductory bonuses or withdrawal penalties, is paying interest of 2.5%.

This means that even with this account the basic rate taxpayer is every year is losing 3.7% - 2.5% + 2.5% x 20% tax = 1.7% of purchasing power on their cash holdings and the higher rate taxpayer is losing 3.7% - 2.5% + 2.5% x 40% tax = 2.7%. So if you are a prudent saver you are being punished while if you are in debt up to the eyeballs your debt is gradually being eroded by the wonderful [sic] inflation that we are seeing. This is thanks to the Bank of England base rate of 0.5% plus the great management that the government is showing.

I’ve protected myself as well as I can by having a significant portion (17.6% of total assets) of the low risk (cash and bonds) portion of my current low charge portfolio in NS&I Index Linked Savings Certificates which is giving me a real positive return. Unfortunately a new Issue of these has not been offered for some time and so I can’t put any more money here.

A little over 3% of my cash is sitting offshore in a ‘clean’ account paying interest of 4.25%. I’m losing money in real terms daily however at least it’s better than the best UK ‘clean’ account rate of 2.5%.

The remainder is in a ‘clean’ UK based account paying 2.1% interest. This is losing significant purchasing power however I feel powerless to do anything about it. I see no option at the moment but to sit tight and hope that one day my prudence is rewarded. Does anyone have a better option?

As always DYOR.

US Inflation – February 2010 Update

The above chart shows the Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) to January 2010 courtesy of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Year on year inflation has fallen from 2.7% in December ’09 to 2.6% in January ‘10. Annualising the last 3 months and inflation is running at 0.0% and annualising the last 6 months has inflation at 1.2%. It looks like the US has their deflation ‘problems’ under control for now.

I have taken the liberty of dividing the chart into two sections. The first red section runs from 1871 to 1932 and the second blue section runs from 1933 to present day. I chose this break point as during 1933 the US officially ended their link to the gold standard. I think this chart demonstrates a point that government will always choose to inflate debt away at the expense of savers if given the chance. They could not do this under the gold standard.

To demonstrate this arithmetic mean inflation rates have been:
1871 to 1932 CPI = 0.5% with deflation being a regular occurrence.
1933 to Present CPI = 3.7%
The CAGR CPI from 1871 to present has been 2.1%.

UK government bond yields continue to rise – February update

I continue to monitor the 10 year government bond yields of three countries (Australia, United Kingdom and the United States) to try and understand when interest rates may start to rise with my datasets shown in today’s chart.

Since June of 2009 the 10 year Australian bond prices have actually fallen by a relatively small 0.5%. In contrast the US 10 year has risen by 7.4% and the UK 10 year by 13.8% to be 4.20% today.

I’m going to update why I think the United Kingdom bond (gilt) yields continue to rise:
Reason 1. The Bank of England have now made clear that they are going to hold interest rates at 0.5% even though inflation is well above target. They have even mentioned that they could yet perform more quantitative easing (QE) which must be inflationary. In the letter to the Chancellor the Bank of England claims that ‘the direct effect of the short-run factors on inflation should be only temporary’ and that ‘although it is likely to remain high over the next few months, inflation is more likely than not to fall back to target in the second half of the year...’. I can’t help but feel that the Bank will ignore their inflation target of 2% and that it’s a case of do as I do not as I say given that the Bank of England’s pension fund has 88.2% of its assets devoted to Index-linked gilts. The market is starting to think the same thing and so to ensure a sensible real (after inflation) yield the prices have to fall and yields rise.

Reason 2. Alistair Darling has forecast government borrowing to be £178 billion. On Thursday last week yet another record was set when it was announced that in a month when tax receipts usually flood in the government still had to borrow £4.34 billion. This is the first time since 1993 that the government has had to borrow in a January. Punters are now starting to suggest taht at current trends the government deficit could be £10 billion more than forecast. Supply and demand principles should hold. More supply of debt for purchase should reduce the price of debt.

Reason 3. The UK government are still yet to explain how they are going to reduce the levels of borrowing. The levels of borrowing are heading to 13% of GDP and may even exceed that of Greece which we have seen so much of in the press lately. How long until the credit worthiness of the UK is downgraded. This will depress prices meaning yields will have to rise.

Reason 4. Those who already own government bonds and can see what’s happening will start to sell their holdings. This combined with the Bank of England now out of the market and no longer buying debt through QE has to reduce the number of buyers. Again supply and demand should prevail pushing yields higher.

So what does this mean for my retirement investing strategy? Exactly where I was last month. If I owned gilts I’d be considering selling. I don’t own fixed interest gilts so I’m ok here. I do own index linked gilts but with inflation kicking off I’m comfortable with this and following the Bank of Englands pension fund.

I also will continue watching house prices carefully. The interest rates on mortgages have to rise as those wanting to borrow for a house will effectively be competing with the UK government for funds. I can’t see how house prices can continue to rise with increased borrowing costs and this could turn out to be the catalyst that brings on a reduction in house prices.

As always DYOR.

Assumptions:
- All yields are month end except February which is 18 February 2010

Gold Priced in GBP – February 2010 Update

I am currently forced to buy gold priced in GBP for my retirement investing strategy as this is where my earnings from employment occurs. I t therefore makes sense to look at how gold has performed over the years priced in local currency.

At the time of writing this post the announcement has just been made that the government’s net borrowings for January are dire at £4.34 billion compared with last year’s surplus of £5.3 billion. This looks to have caused the GBP to weaken to 1.557 to the USD and even with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) declaring that they intend to sell 191.3 tons making gold priced in GBP to be currently £715.57.

In absolute terms gold has never been this expensive when looking back over historic average monthly data since 1979. However there has been a lot of inflation over this period and so as always I will look at the real (inflation) adjusted price of gold over this period which is my chart today. The inflation dataset that I will use is the UK retail prices index (RPI).

This chart shows a very different story. Since 1979 we have seen two higher real peaks. The first was £840.89 in 1983 and the second was £1043.39 back in 1980. These peaks are 18% and 46% higher respectively than today’s price suggesting that there is still plenty of potential upside.

The trend line of the chart suggest gold today at only £248.20 and the historical average real gold price from 1979 is £429.50. So by both these measures gold looks over priced in GBP terms.

History suggests that gold has significant potential upside from its price today and given that I am underweight gold against my desired low charge portfolio I think I am going to buy some more. I will of course update the blog when this occurs.

As always DYOR.

Assumptions include:
- Last Gold price actual taken on the 18 February 2010
- All other prices are month averages.
- February ‘10 inflation is extrapolated.